Incentives Hurt Housing Market

A stimulating article on the back page of the Australian on Monday 11 April by David Uren starts by saying "Demand for homes is falling and the supply is rising." Interesting items in the article include: "First home buyer grants, variable rate mortgages and capital gains tax concessions all served to destabilise housing markets." "The Australian housing market is in a worse state than is widely understood. Demand is falling, supply is rising, and the monthly turnover is drifting lower." "There were a record 260,000 properties advertised for sale in the four weeks to 3 April, 24.1% more than a year ago when the market was booming." Monthly sales peaked in May 2010 at 37,500, and by December 2010 were down to 27,500. That translates to over nine months supply of houses on the market. Later David argues: "Australia's property investors are driven by capital gain, not by rental yield. With the increasing weakness in the capital gain outlook, investors are deserting the market." The point about variable rate mortgages is interesting. "People are encouraged to enter the market during periods of low interest rates without fully appreciating the interest rate risk they are taking on."