M2 Travel Time Savings Overstated

There is a powerful letter in the Northern District Times this week, questioning the whole concept of the M2 widening project. The letter is from John Goldberg, a highly qualified and experienced traffic engineer.

"The claims of travel time savings are part of a derisible economic analysis, prepared by a Transurban consultant with the clear aim of justifying the project. The claims have been shown to be spurious by (Mr Goldberg) in a paper to be published shortly. Transurban has overstated the savings by a factor of four. This means the savings are worth far less than the cost of the project over its concession lifetime."

Mr Goldberg argues that the project is only going ahead because Transurban needs to generate increased cash flow to service their huge group debt of more than $7 billion. Transurban believes the increased cash flow will mainly come from induced traffic, which will of course increase congestion and reduce the travel time savings.

Mr Goldberg says, "The M2 upgrade affair generally demonstrates that transport planning in a major city cannot be reliably carried out by agencies such as the RTA using community manipulation disguised as consultation."

However that is slightly unfair. The problem with this specific project is that, as the letter reminds readers, Kristina Keneally originally approved the project as "critical infrastructure" back in 2009, thereby removing most of the planning checks and balances that should be applied to such a disruptive and questionable project. If the project had been reviewed in the way the original M2 build was reviewed, many of the serious deficiencies in the new widening project might have been excised from the plan. Just one example is the project's intent to remove the excellent Epping Bus Ramp, which was a mandatory part of the original approval for the M2 back in the 1990's. Of course it was the RTA that persuaded Kristina to sign that infamous ruling.

Mr Goldberg suggests that the incoming government should invoke the doctrine of executive necessity and cancel the contract for this project, and undertake serious reform of the RTA.