Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Sydney Population Booming

Kevin Rudd must be very pleased with Sydney, we are doing our bit to Supersize Australia. Our population increased to 4.5 million at last count, and as they say it's "still counting". The Hills Shire grew by 4,800 people, a 2.8% increase 2008/9, beaten only by Blacktown and Parramatta.
Overall Australian immigration is running at 300,000 a year.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Housing Strategy Update

Hornsby Shire's community drop in session in Roselea Community Centre today was excellent value, with very useful displays explaining more about the Housing Strategy, and a team of Strategic Town Planning officers from the Shire available to answer questions.
One question I have had is, who gets to use the underground carparks under each 5-storey construct, and the answer is, it will be up to each developer, within guidelines.
The basic expectation is that the residents and office/shop staff will have access keys, but the developer will have to provide ground level car parking for visitors to the commercial premises in the block. In other words, commuters coming to use the railway won't be able to sneak in, and shoppers won't have to struggle down steep entry ramps into little underground spaces.
Of course the devil is in the detail, which will only be clear when each development application is submitted for consideration, and in the finally approved development. But at least we now know the intention.
As for fears that early development could take out the large car park over and around the Module, the response is that the developer of the Module will have to show a viable plan to keep the village serviced while areas are under development and not available for the public to use.

Housing Market Faces Challenges

So says Don Stammer in an article in The Australian today. "House prices are surging and a bubble mentality is developing in the housing market." He explains the many reasons why Australia avoided the 50% house price crash that is causing so much distress in USA, then gives his prediction for the future.
"I expect the house price boom to run out of puff within the next couple of years as higher interest rates come through and growth in housing lending slows as structural changes in professional money markets curtail the ability of our banks to tap such funds and on-lend to housing here."

Call to Curb Population Growth!

Bob Carr, former labour premier of NSW, says Australia's immigration intake should be halved, to slow population growth. "The economic arguments don't stack up. Increased immigration adds more to the demand for labour than it does to supply."

A new party, the Stable Population Party of Australia, goes even further, asking why we need to increase the population at all. Sydney convenor William Bourke said "Australia's extreme population grown is either causing or exacerbating our economic, environmental, and social problems."

Kevin Rudd says that he believes in a big Australia and is optimistic that the nation's infratructure and environment would cope.

Of course Hornsby Shire's strategy to rezone Beecroft to five storeys is predicated on the Federal government's assertion that the population will continue to expand rapidly for at least the next fifteen years. Wouldn't it be a pity if we built all these new houses and nobody came?

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Freak Storms Continue - this time Perth!

After Sydney was hit by two "worst in a lifetime" storms in one week in February, Melbourne got hit shortly after, and now Perth has had their turn! The Insurance Council of Australia has declared the Perth storms a "general insurance catastrophe", and Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett said the storm had caused "well over $100 million damage".
Something in the climate is changing, surely!
An interesting detail came out in the news reports. Mr Barnett said that since the last major storm in 1994 about half of Perth's power lines had been put underground, which would aid the cleanup effort this time around. At Mt Lawley 23mm fell in 30 minutes. Wanneroo received a total of 63mm - about four times its average March rainfall.

Telstra Increasing House Prices and delaying sales!

Telstra has suddenly decided to stop installing copper phone lines to new houses! This is in retaliation to the federal government's requirement for fibre optic cable to be laid into new houses from 1 July. This has caught developers by surprise, and could cause long delays in selling houses, because developers would not be able to get council certificates that telephone services had been installed. Without those certificates the developer cannot sell the property.
Telstra also say fibre is more expensive to install than fibre, and house prices will therefore increase, possibly by some $3,000. Telstra will require the developer to contribute toward the higher cost of installing fibre instead of copper.
In urban areas the cost of installing fibre will be met by the National Broadband Network, so Telstra will only be charging for installing fibre on greenfield sites.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Finding Beecroft on Hornsby Shire Website

If you google Housing Strategy Hornsby, you are still taken to the OLD strategy discussion forum, http://bangthetable.com/hornsbyhousing, which does not allow you to give your opinion on inclusion of Beecroft and Cheltenham. I suspect many Beecroft and Cheltenham will have given up at this point!
What you have to do is amend your addy to http://bangthetable.com/revisedhornsbyhousing.
Even then it is tricky to find "our" discussion place. You have to pick Hornsby Shire Housing Strategy (2010 Exhibition), click that, then page down repeatedly until you get to "Precincts in Beecroft". Pretty intuitive, yes?
Once there clicking it takes you into our very own VERY private discussion forum. So far only four people seem to have made it!
But this discussion forum allows you to give your opinion on inclusion of Beecroft and Cheltenham in the strategy, and it is worth comparing our sparce entries to Normanhurst in the original strategy website. Remember, Normanhurst's spirited responses resulted in them being removed from the rezoning plan.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Beecroft and Cheltenham Residents ARE INTERESTED

Ray White Beecroft has been flooded with requests for printouts of the Beecroft section of Hornsby Shire's amended Housing Strategy document.
The Shire's promised information sheet is now available, but all it says is that the strategy has been changed. You have to read it quite carefully to find that Beecroft is now included in the rezoning proposal, along with five other precincts.
One would have expected a specific document based on the Shire's Beecroft annex to have been sent to all Beecroft and Cheltenham residents, and similarly for the other newly included precincts, but so far there is no sign of this happening.

Median Price Statistics

An interesting article yesterday explained how house price statistics can mislead.
Over the last year median sale prices have been distorted (downward) by the unusually large number of first home owners buying relatively cheaper properties. Now those buyers have largely left the market, more expensive houses will contribute more to the median value of sold houses, so statistics will indicate that house prices have gone up!
It's like that suburb out to the west of Sydney a few years ago that was quoted as having had about a 1000% "median house price rise" in a year, which was because some wooden shacks had been sold off the previous year and replaced with new two storey MacMansions from a new development.
So beware of false claims by property spruikers! Deal with reputable estate agents and make sure you are provided with valid comparisons to justify the suggested sale price of your property.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

House Price Predictions

Demographia calculates that 57% of the average income is needed to pay the mortgage on the average Sydney home.
Australia has the least affordable houses in the world. In Demographia's Sixth International Housing Affordability Survey, 22 of Australia's 23 regions were labelled Severely Unaffordable. The survey doesn't identify the missing region, presumably it is Christmas Island.
The Housing Industry Association (which represents the property development industry) points out that the average Australian house price is now $485,000, requiring a monthly repayment of $3100. "That is well out of reach of most first home buyers," says Matthew Quinn, CEO of property developer Stockland.
I remember way back in the very distant past when I was looking to buy my first house, I was not looking for an "average" house, I was looking for something I could afford! Yet now we know several young couples, not yet even married, who have recently bought new or nearly new two-storey multi-bedroom properties, on the (misguided?) advice of their parents and ignoring the inevitable imminent rise in interest rates. Has Kevin Rudd really done those young people a favour by conning them into buying more than they will be able to afford?

Lobbying DOES affect Housing Strategy

Reading the council's discussion forum "Bangthedrum", comments about Normanhurst in the original report (March 2009) include the following, which could be used verbatim to cover the present Beecroft submission:
"Council has rushed this through in an underhanded manner without any proper community consultation, particularly from potentially affected stakeholders";
"Council has gone about this in a very sneaky manner, with absolutely no consultation with the actual residents";
"The proposed rezonings for Normanhurst (now read Beecroft) are inappropriate and unjustifiable given the low density characteristics of this suburb. The absence of any detailed assessment of the local area or the capacity of the suburb to absorb more dwellings (not through high rise) as a whole has not been explored. Council and its consultants have taken the laziest and simple option. Start lobbying!"
And for Normanhust the lobbying worked! They were taken out of the Housing Strategy, and poor innocent Beecroft was put in as a substitute. So, citizens of Beecroft and Cheltenham, if you care about your shopping village, it's your turn, start lobbying!

Beecroft Residents Want to Know

The amended Hornsby Shire Housing Strategy was finally released on Monday. Ray White Beecroft immediately printed off the new eight page Beecroft supplement and displayed it in their windows. Responding to strong interest from the community, Ray White Beecroft then started providing printed copies of the Beecroft supplement at Reception, and is astonished at the demand. Something like fifty copies have been taken already, reflecting concerns that the Shire should be doing this, not local business!
The overwhelming public response seems to be outrage that the Shire can make such a stupendous change to the lifestyle of Beecroft and Cheltenham residents with so little publicity and such tight timescale for feedback. It seems likely that the rezoning will be official policy before many of the affected residents know of the plan.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Taxes are Preventing Home Building

"Government taxes are now so high that building has become unprofitable", says Peter Icklow, CEO of Monarch Group, one of NSW's biggest property developers. "Claims of land supply shortages were largely unfounded. It's just that with the huge taxes on each block it's just not profitable."
Caryn Kakas, the executive director of the Residential Development Council of Australia, a subset of the Property Council of Australia, says that for an average $600,000 new home in NSW, government taxes amount to $163,000.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Parking after Five Storey Development

The Shire's new Amended Housing Strategy shows the plan for Beecroft Village, with the entire area being rezoned for five storey development. One assumes the single level of underground car parking beneath each new building will service the residents and shops and offices in the five storeys above, but not provide any parking spaces for the rest of the area.

At yesterday's Public Meeting about the rezoning of Beecroft Village, nothing was said about parking. However it was suggested that The Module could be the first place to be redeveloped. Yet the area above and around The Module provides approximately 100 car parking spots, which are used by customers of all the businesses of beecroft, not just those using The Module. So what happens to those other businesses while The Module is being bulldozed and rebuilt?

I asked Councillor Hutchence for his views on this and he responded:

"In progressing this or any other strategy it is up to us (the Shire) to ensure any DCP/Masterplan for the area does not make parking any worse than it currently is and if anything improve it. What some people may not realise is that if an entire area is marked for redevelopment it gives us the perfect opportunity to fix a number of issues such as parking, for example it may be appropriate to use some of the development space to widen Beecroft Road, it may be appropriate for us to demand public parking as per any DA which may be proposed for the site etc."

I suppose we just have to hope the Shire can hold back the stampede of developers until that master plan is completed and approved by the community.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Housing Strategy On Display

Hornsby Shire has put the amended housing strategy on display, including plans for Beecroft Village shopping precinct. One way to see it is at http://bangthetable.com/topic/precincts-in-beecroft.

There is a pretty plan showing how the shire envisages the development, but the most noteable feature is disappearance of most existing car parking, with no explanation as to what compensating car parking will be provided. The main plan has always proposed a single floor of underground car parking, under a five storey mixed commercial and residential development, which will barely provide sufficient parking for the new residents. So where do shoppers and restaurant clients park?

Friday, March 12, 2010

Gloss off Auction Prices

SMH says "Sydney's auction market has lost some sheen". A record 2860 houses and units are listed for auction in March, and so far have achieved 70% clearance, compared to 85% in January.
Australian Property Monitors ascribes this in part to buyers bringing forward purchases last year because of the low interest rates and first home owner grants. Now, not only have those incentives evaporated, but also there is a lag as those "early birds" are out of the market.

State to Acquire Land for Housing

The Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW State Government is preparing to compulsorily acquire and rezone privately owned land for resale to developers. This puts a very new light on Hornsby Shire's amended Housing Strategy. As soon as Beecroft Village Shopping Centre is rezoned for five story housing, the state could acquire parts or all of the village and hand it over to developers.

Councillor Hutchence recently assured a meeting of Businesses of Beecroft that it would be very many years before new development started, and admitted that the main problem for developers would be the many different small property owners in the village. Now it seems that problem will be eliminated in a stroke!

The SMH article implies that property owners may only be compensated at current land value, and not at the value of the rezoned land! Apparently the developers need that extra profit to make it worth their while to start bulldozing.

According to the article, Frank Sartor tried to bring this in two years ago, but the proposal lapsed after a public backlash. As part of that backlash Gordon Moyes wrote "the government is wrong to pursue a model which weakens the fundamental rights of landowners to their property and deprives them of full compensation. This Bill (the Lands Acquisition (Just Terms Compensation) Amendment Bill 2009), denies the individual of their basic property rights."

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Housing Market Cooling?

The SMH has an article headed "Housing Market shows signs of cooling". Frequent rate rises and the end of the first home owners' boost "appear to have broken the back of the NSW housing market". New figures show lending in January fell to its lowest point in more than 10 years. Only 667 NSW residents took out new construction loans in January, down from a peak of 1270 last September. Only 472 loans were issued to buy new houses, down from twice that a few months earlier. Loans to buy established houses fell from 19,100 in March last year to 10,041 this January.
A key sentence in the article is "it is understandable there would be a period of consolidation after the past year's phenomenal run", says Savanth Sebastian of CommSec.
The proportion of Australians agreeing that "now is a good time to buy a dwelling" fell from 62% in September 2009 to 42% this month.
The long term trend of fewer people living in each dwelling has gone backwards for the first time in decades, as young adults stay at home longer, and more people share accommodation.

Bang the Table about Housing Strategy

The Hornsby Shire is now advertising the amended housing strategy due to be unveiled 15 March. It doesn't specifically mention that the amendment brings Beecroft Village into the 5 storey redevelopment plan.

The advertisements list a council website "bangthetable.com/revisedhornsbyhousing" as the place to have your say. It doesn't mention that this "online discussion forum" is not yet available. Enquiring of the council I am advised the forum should be available 14 March.

Meanwhile if you intend to participate in the discussion go to the website and register so you will have access to the forum when it is available.

I still believe a dedicated discussion group should be available for Beecroft and Cheltenham, along with the other precincts that have been added to the strategy with so little fanfare and so little time for the local communities to find out what is happening and respond.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

BangtheTable about Housing Strategy

Hornsby Shire offers a community discussion forum at http://bangthetable.com/. It is worth joining to learn what is being said! The discussion about the first draft Hornsby's Housing Strategy was closed in July 2009 after collecting 60,433 views, 20 discussion groups, and 1,152 comments.
If you go into the original discussion area you can find where Beecroft was suggested by just one person, five people agreed and one disagreed. On such small threads hangs the devastation of a community? Trouble was, of course, that the Beecroft and Cheltenham communities had no idea this little chat had taken place, and therefore did not get a chance to contribute to the debate back in middle of 2009.
The communities affected by the original plan had their chance to give their views. The Shire should now open a discussion group restricted to the changes to the plan, to give communities who were not involved in the earlier plan but are now, like Beecroft and Cheltenham, a chance to have their say. I suspect there will be more responses on the topic this time.

Paying for Financial Advice

A delightful quote from Warren Buffett is "Don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut."
He is referring to the fact that financial advisers are only paid if the deal they are advising on is completed, so they are hardly going to raise concerns about the deal.
It's rather the same with pest and building inspections for houses. Some say the vendor should provide the report, to save buyers from the cost of an inspection for a house they decide not to buy. But how can the buyer know the validity of the inspection report? If the house is, say, riddled with termites, the vendor could keep having surveys done until an inspector doesn't notice, and offer that report to buyers. Indeed, word would soon go round as to which inspectors could be relied on to give favourable reports, and inspectors who were too honest would find themselves not being invited to work. The present system encourages inspectors to be thorough and honest, which surely is what the buyer needs.

Hornsby Shire Housing Strategy

Still no official recognition of the addition of Beecroft Village for five storey development can be found on the Hornsby Shire website http://www.hornsby.nsw.gov.au/housing. So it will first be officially announced on 15 March by exhibitions in various libraries around the state, with acceptance of community submissions closing on 23 April. Yet the website says: "The public exhibition will be widely advertised and you will have ample opportunity to submit your feedback."
I just don't think five weeks is "ample opportunity" when nothing has been done in advance to alert the Beecroft and Cheltenham communities of the proposed change.

Development against Community Wishes

Insight's discussion programme on television last night covered a large multi-storey development in Victoria that seems to have been pushed through with no community discussion and against what is now being expressed as strong community disagreement. The Victorian Planning Minister justified this by saying there wasn't time to consult, the work has to be finished by end of 2010 to qualify for the stimulus money. It was then revealed that the strength of opposition has forced a temporary hold on construction, so one wonders what happens if the development is not finished by year end! Does the half-build edifice get demolished?
Similar things seem to be happening in Hornsby. The shire has been instructed to provide 11,000 new dwellings by 2031, and are therefore steamrollering a proposal to rezone the Beecroft Village Shopping Centre through the process without allowing time for community response to the plan.

Australia's Recovery "is Fragile"

The SMH BusinessDay reports that Ken Henry, head of the Treasury, is concerned that Australia's recovery is largely due to the stimulus, and is at risk as the stimulus measures are withdrawn.
So where has the strong growth figures come from? Peter Martin of the SMH points out that 25% growth in capital spending by business happened in the ACT! The statistic includes a 36% increase in purchases of passenger cars, and a 43% increase in purchases of four wheel drives! Those 48,000 extra passenger cars and 25,000 extra four wheel drives have inflated the growth figures nicely, and prompted yesterday's interest rate rise, but are they really doing anything for Australia's financial recovery?
It's actually quite frightening to Google "recovery fragile" and seeing how widespread these concerns are, not just the obvious ones like Greece and the UK, but also India, China, and many others.

Building Sector response to Rate Rise

A survey shows that half of the commercial building and construction sector could take their financing away from the banks and look to private syndicates or offshore for future funding.
Mark Beattie of Davis Langdon said "Given current lending policies and a rising interest rate environment, it is difficult to see how the construction industry can pick up quickly, as the benefits from the federal government's stimulus package start to fade".
A developer is quoted as saying smaller companies are forced to pay at least 4% above a normal residential loan as charged by the banks.

Interest Rates Raised

As widely expected the Fed raised interest rates 0.25%, with markets confident further increases will follow, targeting probably 4.75% to 5% by year end.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Hornsby Shire Housing Strategy Deadline

The latest information from Hornsby Shire is that the amended plan will be on show from 15 March to 23 April, and submissions "will be received until 23 April".
This seems a quite unjustifiably early closing date, given that residents of Beecroft and Cheltenham don't yet even know their shopping precinct has been added to the plan!
We understand a package of documentation will be provided to all residents, but past experience suggests this will be several hundred pages long, and it is most unlikely to draw attention to the inclusion of Beecroft Village into the plan.
A series of displays are being organised by the Shire in Hornsby, Berowra, Galston, Pennant Hills, and Epping. But nothing in Beecroft! All those other places were informed of the Shire's intentions last year, and nothing much has changed for them. Surely the Shire should be concentrating its presentations in the precincts that have been added to the plan this year.